This will never happen again.

For starters, never again will George W. Bush run for president. Never again will we be accused of being unpatriotic because we want to defeat our "war president."

When I got in there, I saw a white guy (note: I'm also a white guy) in a khaki suit, with a big "poll watcher" button on his label. He sort of stared blankly at the crowd (mostly white and Hispanic) and flipped through some papers. Then I got to the desk where I hand in my registration card. I turn over my Virginia card, which came in the mail mid-September.

And they challenged my registration.

Trend:

Bush  49(48)
Kerry 48(48)

Everyone will tell you this doesn't matter any more. Everyone is right. Kerry is statistically tied with Bush, outperforming Gore from 2000.

All that matters is getting out the vote, reminding voters to check their ballots - you know the drill.

Remember: Karl Rove didn't expect to be tied on election day. He didn't expect a late Democratic surge. He didn't expect 43% of voters to trust the Democrat on fighting the war on terror. He didn't expect to be fighting like a drowning pig for Ohio and Florida. Bush is primed to lose. So make it happen.

Here's another thing to get your chin up. In 2000, the final Gallup poll showed Ralph Nader at 4 percent. Al Gore was scared into campaigning in Oregon. Nader spoiled New Hampshire and Florida - he nearly spoiled Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The rule of thumb with third party candidates is that their second campaign gives them half the votes of their first. Well, this is Nader's second real hit-the-hustings campaign. He's getting 1/7 of his 2000 vote.

Another way of putting it - among 1,573 likely voters polled by Gallup he was backed by nine. NINE.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=/ap/20041031/ap_on_el_pr/cheney_37&print er=1

(The story's already rated way down, but go ahead and rate it down some more if you like.)

Jesus f'ing Christ. What happened to my party?

Don't answer that.

"Osama bin Laden would not give out a video report 72 hours before the election unless he wanted to influence it. He would like to see somebody other than George Bush, because George Bush has really taken it to him," added Thompson, the U.S. secretary of health and human services and an appointee of President Bush.

So we're starting to see the blowback of Osama's raspberry to the United States. There's a Newsweek poll taken beforehand that (however statistically goofy) gives Bush a lead. And then there are Zogby, Rasmussen, Fox and ABC/Wash Post polls that show Bush tumbling.

Trends following yesterday:

Bush  49(50)
Kerry 48(47)

Trend lines:

Bush  47(50)
Kerry 45(45)

A week ago, Bush was up 49-42.

And how do right-wingers want this tape to play out? Here's a comment from National Review.

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_10_24_corner-archive.asp#043986

I'll be curious to see the NJ numbers tomorrow and Sunday, after this release. Pa., to some extent, too.

UPDATE: Another pessimistic thought (it's my speciality!). If Bush wins, there is going to be a long, wide record of his supporters gleefully watching a threat by Osama bin Laden, and hoping out loud that this would help their guy get elected. Hold these a**holes' feet to the fire. When Osama reemerged before the election, they were more interested in electing Bush than catching him. And Bush's bump (if he gets one) will be the "bin Laden bump."

Seriously, count the lies or misrepresentations in this column. Here's my favorite.

Back in December 2001, when bin Laden was apparently hiding in Tora Bora, Kerry supported the strategy of using Afghans to hunt him down. He told Larry King that our strategy "is having its impact, and it is the best way to protect our troops and sort of minimalize the proximity, if you will. I think we have been doing this pretty effectively, and we should continue to do it that way."

http://cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0112/14/lkl.00.html

EAU CLAIRE, Wis. (AP) - Vice President Dick Cheney will campaign in Hawaii on Sunday, making a rare stop on historically Democratic turf where the presidential race is unexpectedly close, a spokeswoman announced Thursday.

``We are competitive in the state; this is a very close race,'' Anne Womack said.

The trip was announced hours after news broke that the FBI has begun investigating whether the Pentagon improperly awarded no-bid contracts to Halliburton Co., the oil services corporation formerly headed by Cheney.

Womack said President Bush's leadership ``has really resonated in a state that has a strong economy, with a tourism industry that is very strong and they recognize the danger of terrorism.''

Cheney will fly to Hawaii for a rally Sunday night.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1260714/posts

Same stuff shown on ABC earlier...coordinated attack on GW last minute.

The October surprise after all. Too late to beat this now...

*

Rove and the Republican leadership need to come out with a little presentation that puts this to rest once and for all. There is plenty of time, especially with the numbers that will will watch nightly news on Friday and Monday due to the election being so close.

For all of you fretting about Bush's newfound love for Michigan. Trend line from last week's poll -

Kerry 47(43)
Bush  42(47)

With luck, the paper's non-endorsement - roughly equivilent to the San Francisco Chronicle endorsing Bush - will soften his support around Detroit.

Let Bush and Cheney keep stumping there, but do NOT get cocky.

Rohrabacher - http://www.ocweekly.com/ink/03/01/cover-moxley.php

Norquist -
http://www.sptimes.com/2003/03/11/Floridian/Friends_in_high_place.shtml

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2004/10/statement-from-wesley-clark.html

Today George W. Bush made a very compelling and thoughtful argument for why he should not be reelected. In his own words, he told the American people that "...a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your Commander in Chief.

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Oct2004/n10262004_2004102606.html

Here's the Department of Defense's claim.

However, coalition forces found no evidence of the weapons in question when they first arrived at the sprawling Al-Quaqaa facility, 30 miles south of Baghdad, about April 10, 2003, according to a defense official.

My God, could he be tickling Matt Drudge's balls any HARDER?

Freep this back to the stone age. Don't let the Bush sycophants make this into a liberal media story.

I've freeped it. Your turn.

Kerry up 1, Bush stagnant. He he he.

Trend:

Kerry 50(49)

Bush 48(48)

Waiting for internals. Post em if you got em.

In the meantime, a note on why this matters. National Review magazine's anti-Kerry blogger had this disturbing revelation on 10/19.

I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states: If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.

Tinsley said he did the Kerry strips -- which will run for at least two weeks -- for several reasons. He noted that Kerry could very well win, given that some overconfident George W. Bush supporters may not vote and because of the continual bad news coming out of Iraq.

The cartoonist, who had doubts about the Iraq war from the beginning, added that he's always been frustrated about doing his comic near a presidential election. Tinsley creates "Mallard Fillmore" about two weeks before publication -- meaning that, every four years, he has to "fudge" about which candidate might win. "This time, I decided to go ahead a pick a winner," he said.